David Gerard wrote:
http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details?site0=wikipedia.org&s…
So ... how long at our present cancerous rates of growth till our
traffic is 6x what it is now?
(We hit #10 on Alexa twice in the last month, by the way. Our smoothed
page rank is #12.)
While Google's pageviews fluctuate a lot more than ours, squinting at
the charts suggests that their average growth rate over the last 5 years
has been a bit under twice what ours has been this year. So, according
to a linear extrapolation, we may be able to narrow down the relative
margin but won't catch up with them in absolute terms.
Then again, while our growth this year seems fairly linear, the three
year graph could also be quite well fitted to an exponential model, if
you ignore the odd spike last January and the corresponding slowdown
over the first half of this year. If our growth is in fact still
exponential, I'd roughly estimate our yearly growth rate to be about
3.5-fold, which would have us catching up with Google in about a year
and a half, assuming their growth remains mostly linear.
And if you believe any of that crap, I've got some stocks to sell you.
--
Ilmari Karonen