[WikiEN-l] AFD 100 Days, take 2

Sun Oct 2 07:08:43 UTC 2005

On 10/2/05, DF <dragons_flight at yahoo.com> wrote:
>
>
> Jni is something of a special case. In 117 closes, he
> never closed as Keep. Hence at some empirical level,
> his threshold might equally well be anything below his
> weakest consensus. The algorithm being used picks a
> number in the middle of the many equivalent values, so
> it may be skewing a lot lower than is sensible. A
> more useful column to look at in cases like this is
> the "Est. Deviation", this shows how many AFDs he
> might have been expected to close differently had he
> been using a 63.5% value which is the average. For
> Jni, that value is 2, meaning that he closed as delete
> roughly two AFDs with less than 63.5% votes for
> deletion.
>
>
Thing is, some admins specialise in early closes, and some specialise in
late closes--you choose which day log to process and depending on its
position in the list of day logs you'll find yourself processing old or new
listings. The early closers will have a very high number of straight keep or
delete closes (mostly deletes), the late closers will have a fairly high
number of no consensus keep closes.

I'm shocked at the extremely low figure at which the sample seemed to close
with delete. 63% is absolutely not to be confused with consensus.

On the other hand, 75% of closes beingdelete is a much lower hit rate than I
expected before I went and examined a few completed day logs myself. I
naively expected the delete rate to be around 90% or more.