Folks,
There is no potential tipping point that I can see for information being
added to the system other than the capacity of the system to organise and
retrieve information.
The reason I say this is that we see:
- at least one national, provincial or even municipal election held a
week on average with new people being elected;
- albums, movies and books being released each week;
- musicians, actors, directors and authors becoming notable as a
result of above regularly;
- launch of notable new companies and businesses through IPOs and
other processes;
- a steady flow of scientific discoveries ;
- notable national disasters occurring regularly (we have had two very
significant ones occur within twelve months in the Indian Ocean tsunami and
Hurricane Katrina); and
- regular launch of notable new products.
The only potential limit is the capacity of the system to organise and
retrieve such information.
Keith
aka Capitalistroadster
On 9/21/05, Geoff Burling <llywrch(a)agora.rdrop.com> wrote:
On Tue, 20 Sep 2005, Tony Sidaway wrote:
A couple of days ago I was on the verge of taking
this matter very
seriously.
Then I looked at the net growth rate of the Wikipedia page count. Around
1500 new pages per day remaining undeleted after seven days. I compared
it
to the sclerotic maximum capacity of Articles for
Deletion (AfD)
(average of
112 listings per day early June to early
September) and the fact that
AfD
participants complain bitterly about their
inability to keep up with AfD
at
present.
Tony's observation reminds me of a question I've pondered off & on
over
the last couple of months, which I'm adding to the mail list on the off
chance someone may want to study it.
Simply put: is there a point in Wikipedia's size where it's current growth
will taper off or stop? I don't mean to repeat the old chestnut that
knowledge is somehow finite: put in different words, is there a certain
point where contributors will find it far easier to work on existing
articles than to contribute new ones?
(This is a problem that I doubt we'll encounter until Wikipedia reaches
somewhere between 5 & 10 million articles, but I think it is a potential
problem.)
Bottom line: AfD doesn't scale. Whatever
problems may exist with AfD's
tendency to randomly delete a selection of perfectly reasonable
articles,
and VFU's growing unwillingness to rectify
this, the problem will
decrease
in significance in the long term as page creation
rates accelerate
inexorably beyond the reach of AfD, and possibly even any defensible
extension of speedy deletion.
If there is such a tipping point, we may find that AfD (in whatever form
it has at the time) not only will be able to keep up with the flow, but
may actually reduce the size of Wikipedia!
Nevertheless, I admit Tony addresses a problem that will likely be seen
far sooner than mine.
Geoff
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